Price
$69.62
The Activist Wiki is a running series of special-situation dossiers, each built from the filings up. Every name carries the same three artifacts: a full dossier that shows the work, a Sohn-style pitch deck that makes the case in twelve slides, and a shareholder letter to the board, written so any holder can copy it, sign it, and send it in one click. One hub, one address per idea.
The guarantor priced for catastrophe.
The quality monoline trades at 0.37 times adjusted book. Our corrected stress grid runs from $189.70 in the base case to roughly $108 under S&P’s AA severe scenario; only the AAA-extreme tail, a $30 to $70 range, reaches today’s price. The market is pricing the catastrophe case as the base case. The dossier lays out the credit book name by name, the activist agenda carries six asks for the board, and the letter at the top of the dossier is ready to send to Investor Relations at ir@agltd.com.
The other monoline: National, PREPA, and a stub priced for zero.
A $229 million market value against $337 million of cash and liquid assets at the holding company alone. National is solvent, with $968 million of statutory capital and $1.4 billion of claims-paying resources; MBIA Corp. is ring-fenced; and one unresolved credit, PREPA, does the work of an entire valuation. The dossier decomposes the negative GAAP book value part by part, maps the PREPA docket, and sets out four asks. The letter is addressed, via Investor Relations, to the board.
New names join the wiki as the filings work is finished, never before. Each one gets its own address on this hub, the same dossier, deck, and letter treatment, and a figures block sourced to the company’s own disclosures. When a situation resolves or the thesis breaks, its page stays up and says so.